Jack's Free Pick Monday: Philadelphia Phillies -132

The Los Angeles Angels are playing like the team most thought they would be coming into the season, which is one of the worst teams in baseball.  They have gone 1-9 in their last 10 games overall and just gave up a total of 27 runs in two games over the weekend to the Twins.

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing what they are capable of, which is one of the best teams in baseball.  They have gone 11-2 in their last 13 games overall and have now scored at least 5 runs in 10 of their last 12 games.  They are raking at the plate right now.

The Phillies should stay hot at the plate against Griffin Canning, who is 1-3 with a 7.50 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in five starts this season while allowing 20 earned runs and 5 homers in 24 innings.  The Angels won't get much off Cristopher Sanchez, who is 1-3 with a 2.59 ERA in five starts this season while allowing 7 earned runs in 24 1/3 innings with 28 K's.

The Angels are 4-18 in their last 22 games against NL teams that score 4.5 or more runs per game.  Philadelphia is 44-12 in its last 56 games against bad teams that are outscored by one or more runs per game on the season.  Bet the Phillies Monday.

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15* AL Monday Total DOMINATOR on Twins/White Sox OVER 7.5

The Minnesota Twins are raking right now scoring 5 runs or more in seven consecutive games while averaging 8.1 runs per game in their last seven.  The Chicago White Sox have finally gotten their bats going as well scoring 3 runs or more in six consecutive games, including a total of 21 runs in their 3-game sweep of the Rays last series.

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket between the White Sox and Twins.  There are expected to be 13 MPH winds blowing out to left tonight at Guaranteed Rate Field with temps approaching 70.

Both starters are getting too much respect in this one.  Joe Ryan has allowed 7 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings in his last two starts.  He gave up 2 homers in 6 innings to the White Sox in his last start on April 24th of a 6-3 victory opposite Garrett Crochet.  Ryan has allowed 7 earned runs and 4 homers in 12 innings in his last two starts against Chicago.

Crochet has been a major disappointment for the White Sox.  He is 1-4 with a 6.37 ERA in six starts this season, including 0-3 with a 13.11 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 17 earned runs and 4 homers in 11 2/3 innings.  Crochet gave up 5 earned runs in 4 innings in that loss to the Twins on April 24th.

Minnesota is 22-6 OVER in its last 28 games against a starting pitcher that allowed one or more homers per start.  The OVER is 5-0-1 in Twins last six games overall.  The OVER is 5-1 in White Sox last six games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Dodgers/Diamondbacks OVER 10

The Dodgers are hitting .274 and scoring 5.3 runs per game this season.  They should be able to name their number against Tommy Henry, who is 1-1 with a 5.55 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in five starts this season, including 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA and 2.16 WHIP in two home starts.

James Paxton is fortunate to have a 2.61 ERA in his four starts this season when you consider he has a 1.55 WHIP and has allowed 17 walks in 20 2/3 innings with only 11 K's.  He has somehow been able to get out of trouble despite lacking good 'stuff'.  His luck runs out tonight against an Arizona lineup that is hitting .294 and scoring 7.3 runs per game against left-handed starters this season.

The Dodgers are 10-2 OVER vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs per game this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NL Monday Total DOMINATOR on Reds/Padres OVER 8

The Cincinnati Reds have a potent lineup that is scoring 5.0 runs per game.  The San Diego Padres are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season.  This is a very low total for a game involving these two offenses tonight.

Nick Lodolo will be making his 4th start of the season.  After shutting down two of the worst lineups in baseball in the White Sox and Angels, he took a big step up in class and allowed 3 runs and 9 base runners in 5 innings of a 7-4 win over the Phillies in his last start.  He won't be able to hold the Padres in check, either.

The Reds should have plenty of success against Matt Waldron, who is 1-2 with a 3.96 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in five starts this season, including 0-2 with a 9.34 ERA and 2.08 WHIP in two home starts, allowing 9 earned runs and 16 hits in 8 2/3 innings. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* AL East TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Yankees/Orioles OVER 9

The Orioles are scoring 5.7 runs per game at home this season while the Yankees are scoring 6.1 runs per game on the road.  These are two of the best lineups in the American League, and both are hot right now.

The Yankees scored 30 runs in two games over the weekend and have not scored at least 6 runs in four of their last five games overall.  The Orioles have scored at least 6 runs in three of their last four, and 4 runs or more in 13 of their last 14 games overall.

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 8 MPH winds blowing out to left in Baltimore tonight.  The ball should be flying off the bats of both teams in his humid air.

Grayson Rodriquez allowed 7 eruns and 12 base runners in 4 1/3 innings of a 7-4 loss to the Angels in his last start.  Clarke Schmidt is 2-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in three career starts against the Orioles, and the OVER is 3-1 in those four starts.

Rodriquez is 12-3 OVER in his last 15 starts with a total of 8.5 to 10 runs.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Lakers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +7.5

The Los Angeles Lakers have had a lead for 136 of the 192 minutes played in this series.  They have really been the better team for large stretches despite being down 3-1 in this series.  The Nuggets gave them life in Game 4 as the Lakers were finally able to close, and now they got that monkey off their back from losing 11 straight to the Nuggets in this head-to-head series.

Look for the Lakers to be playing free and loose in Game 5 tonight.  Everyone left them for dead down 3-0, but they have a legit shot to get back in this series now.  That's especially the case with Jamal Murray questionable with a calf injury suffered late in Game 4.  If he doesn't play this line will crash, and I like the Lakers to cover this 7.5-point spread even if he does and is at less than 100%.  The Nuggets just don't have the depth they have had in recent seasons.  Bet the Lakers Monday.